How might climate change impact the global prevalence and spread of diseases in the future? References: Curriero, F. C., Patz, J. A., Rose, J. B., & Lele, S. (2001). The Association between Extreme Precipitation and Waterborne Disease Outbreaks in the United States, 1948–1994. American Journal of Public Health, 91(8), 1194-1199. Lowen, A. C., Mubareka, S., Steel, J., & Palese, P. (2007). Influenza virus transmission is dependent on relative humidity and temperature. PLoS Pathog, 3(10), e151. doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.0030151 Mordecai, E. A., Paaijmans, K. P., Johnson, L. R., Balzer, C., Ben-Horin, T., de Moor, E., ... & Lafferty, K. D. (2013). Optimal temperature for malaria transmission is dramatically lower than previously predicted. Ecology Letters, 16(1), 22-30.

Climate Change and its Impact on Global Disease Prevalence

Climate change has the potential to affect human health in multiple ways, including through the prevalence and spread of diseases. These impacts could be directly via changes in the environment that enable disease vectors, or indirectly through the disruption of social and economic systems.

Climate Variations and Disease Spread

Research indicates that climate variations can dramatically affect the spread of disease. For example, studies in the United States found a significant correlation between extreme precipitation events and outbreaks of waterborne diseases (Curriero et al., 2001). Changes in precipitation patterns and increased frequency of extreme weather events, both predictions under global climate change scenarios, could increase the risk of such diseases.

Temperature Changes and Disease Transmission

Temperature changes can also influence disease transmission. Influenza transmission was found to be dependent on relative humidity and temperature, with optimal transmission conditions in colder and less humid environments (Lowen et al., 2007). In hotter climates, diseases transmitted by insects such as malaria may become more prevalent. Malaria transmission is most effective at lower temperatures than previously thought, indicating that even small increases in temperatures could lead to increased transmission in certain regions (Mordecai et al., 2013).

Long-term Implications

The long-term implications of these changes are complex and depend on various factors, including the ability and willingness of society to adapt or mitigate the impacts of climate change. Assessing the full extent of health impacts due to climate change, including disease spread, is a challenging task and requires multidisciplinary, collaborative effort.